Bank or Bust: Mayweather-Guerrero Edition
- Updated: May 3, 2013
We’re inching closer to Saturday night’s welterweight showdown between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Robert Guerrero, and as the two simply wait for the opening bell, we bring back Bank or Bust to share some thoughts on the fight.
Let’s get straight to it!
1. Guerrero says that Mayweather is “ripe for the picking”. At his age and his inactivity, this is likely true.
Ali Shakoor: BANK: I say that mainly due to his being 36, and will add that Mayweather simply doesn’t have the legs to move like he used to. Floyd’s chin is simply average, so if Guerrero can land some hard and good shots on the less mobile Mayweather, I think he can achieve the big upset. We also have to keep in mind that working in the corner with a volatile and arrogant personality like Floyd Sr. for the first time in many years could, plausibly, cause some problems on fight night if things aren’t going very well. I understand that Mayweather is a seasoned vet who knows how to make necessary adjustments, but you just never know when their father/son issues may flare up during times of duress.
Ramon Aranda: BANK: I say that with a caveat, as Mayweather showed us in the Cotto fight that he could get hit a litte more often. He said he engaged more in order to give the fans a more entertaining fight, but I think he’s simply slipping. That being said, it’s going to take the right fighter to take advantage of an aging fighter as even a 36-year old Floyd is better than pretty much anyone out there right now. It’ll take careful gameplanning, plenty of poise and hunger to make that happen. Whether Guerrero is that fighter remains to be seen but Floyd can’t remain unhittable for the remainder of his career.
2. Mayweather says he plans on fighting twice a year due to his 30-month contract with Showtime. He’ll do it.
Ali Shakoor: BUST: Nothing in Mayweather’s recent history suggests that there is any freaking way he’ll fight twice a year. I simply don’t see that happening. There is a high number of prime and talented fighters between 140-154, and the more Floyd fights, the less he’ll be able to dodge “prime and talented” fighters who are a danger to his 0. Back in late 2007 till early 2009 when the 147 lb division was historically deep with guys like Prime Cotto, close to Prime Mosley, Prime Cheato, and Prime Pacquiao, Floyd RETIRED. He then came back after 21 months away against a pudgy and aging Marquez, who had never fought above 135 before; Floyd still had to cheat the catchweight in that fight. Plus, Floyd’s not hurting for money- yet. Also keep in mind that his age could make him more prone to nagging injuries that would cause a big delay between fights. Floyd has been remarkably healthy during the past six years or so, and his luck will likely run out at some point.
Ramon Aranda: BUST. I’ll believe it when I see it. Mayweather has been fighting once a year for a few years now and at his age, I don’t see him being to eager to mix it up twice in a calendar year. I would however, like to see it happen but I don’t have faith that he will.
3. Guerrero earned his opportunity and will present a tough challenge.
Ali Shakoor: BANK: I am pleasantly shocked to see how well Ghost has progressed as a fighter. I had no idea he’d be able to carry his chin, talent and power up to 147 in such a smooth transition. He will provide a tough challenge for Floyd, will win some rounds, and is a live underdog.
Ramon Aranda: BANK. There’s no question that Guerrero, who was at first laughed at for calling out Mayweather when he was out with a shoulder injury and hadn’t fought above 135 pounds, has earned his shot. He looked gritty and tough when he outpointed Selcuk Aydin, but his domination of former welterweight titlist Andre Berto was among his finest moments. He broke him down, floored him twice and wen to war with him, showing a good chin, speed and determination. If he comes in with the same mindset against Mayweather, he could be a problem.
4. Abner Mares faces Daniel Ponce De Leon in the co-feature. They will wind up stealing the show.
Ali Shakoor: BUST: They won’t wind up stealing the show, because the main event will absolutely be action packed and memorable. Ghost will bring a hell of a fight and Mayweather is a Hall of Fame talent who will be forced to fight his ass off in entertaining fashion, in order to pull out the victory. Fans are shelling out big money to see Guerrero and Mayweather, and we surely will not be disappointed. However, I do expect Mares v. Ponce De Leon to be one hell of a scrap.
Ramon Aranda: BUST. I was actually tempted to say BANK, but I do have high hopes for an entertaining clash between Mayweather and Guerrero. I also think Mares-Ponce De Leon will be fun to watch but it will lack the drama that the main event will likely produce; or at least I hope it does.
5. After the KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez, you have no interest in seeing Pacquiao in the ring with Mayweather anymore.
Ali Shakoor: BUST: I’d still have interest. We have no idea what Manny has left after that brutal KO he suffered. But honestly, against Bradley and in the early rounds before getting annihilated by Marquez, Manny’s form looked pretty good for the downside fighter he had become. Regardless of whether Mayweather were to win or lose in the next year or so, and if Manny still looks dangerous and skilled, I’d still pay big money to see that fight. My personal opinion: Back in 2009-2010, Manny’s power and non-stop activity would have given him a victory over Mayweather. However, as Manny began to lose some pop and drastically slowed his activity from 2011-2012, I think Floyd would have won fairly easily with his counter-punching ability. As they both age and regress in 2014 and beyond, there’s no telling who will have more left in the tank or will start to show signs of brain damage. It’s a shame that the fight never happen when it should have, but that’ s rant for another day.
Ramon Aranda: BANK. Honestly, the time has come and gone for that fight. While it would still be somewhat interesting, it’s lost all of its luster. Frankly, I’d prefer to see Pacquiao tangle with Brandon Rios, which is the popular theory right now, and then perhaps get a rematch with Timothy Bradley (if he gets past Marquez) or Mike Alvarado. Should Mayweather get upset by Guerrero however, the idea of a Mayweather-Pacquiao may regain some intrigue but still won’t mean as much anymore.
6. Canelo Alvarez would be the natural opponent for the winner of this fight.
Ali Shakoor: BUST: I think if Guerrero were to win, it’s pretty clear that he’ll be having a rematch with Mayweather in the fall. If Mayweather wins, unfortunately, I don’t think it’s likely that he’ll face Canelo in September. The fact that he refused to commit to that September fight and place Canelo on the undercard for this Saturday is pretty telling. I think Mayweather knows what we all know: Canelo Alvarez is the surest threat to Floyd in the fight game today. Canelo has brutal power, and he showed improved defense and overall boxing skills against Trout a couple of weeks ago. He’s only 22 and getting better. However, if Floyd were smart, he’d just cash in and go for Canelo in September after beating Guerrero. Floyd won’t be able to avoid that fight for the next year or two, without looking like a shameless ducker. The longer he waits, Canelo is going to get better and stronger as he enters his prime, while Floyd just gets older. If Floyd and Canelo fight this fall, I think it would do close to 2 million PPV buys.
Ramon Aranda: BUST. If Guerrero comes out victorious, Mayweather will get his rematch. Even if he didn’t though, I don’t see Guerrero taking on a much bigger guy like Alvarez. If Mayweather wins, then I’d love to see him take on Canelo in September in a fight that would bring in hordes of fans and presents an equal threat for both fighters.
7. At the end of the day, Mayweather is simply too good and will win clearly.
Ali Shakoor: BANK: I see this fight looking similar to the Mayweather/Hatton fight, except Guerrero will cause Floyd even more problems with his size, versatility and power. Don’t be surprised to see Floyd behind after 6 or 7 rounds. However, down the stretch I think Floyd will make the necessary adjustments–something he’s brilliant at–and will win a clear victory or late TKO. Floyd’s stamina and pinpoint accuracy will eventually wear Guerrero down after a valiant effort.
Ramon Aranda: BANK. While I say BANK, it’s more so for my pick of Mayweather as the winner. I’m a little uncertain as to how “clearly” the win could be if it goes to the cards, but I expect Guerrero to give it his all and hang with Mayweather for a while. Floyd is clearly in another league but if he shows more slippage and if Guerrero can use the jab and some body work, it could get interesting.