Mayweather-Alvarez: Four Scenarios for ‘The One’
- Updated: August 15, 2013
With just one month to go until the most anticipated boxing exhibition in years, training camps are in full swing in both Big Bear, California and Las Vegas, Nevada as Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez, aka Kid Cinnamon and Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather prepare for their fight that was promoted nationally from New York to Los Angeles titled ‘The One’.
While it may not be the most catching fight title ever given to a bout, in fact it feels familiar as Mayweather’s 2009 contest against Juan Manuel Marquez was titled ‘Number One/Numero Uno’, the title carries significant meaning as to where both fighters go after this ‘one’.
And that is precisely because of this: barring an unlikely draw or split draw, (when was the last time we have ever even seen a highly publicized PPV without a definitive outcome?) on September 14th one of these fighters is going to record a ‘one’ in the loss column.
In just which direction will each fighter go after ‘The One’?
The outcome of September 14 is extremely critical to each fighter with heavy consequences for each. Mayweather is currently regarded as the consensus No. 1 fighter on the planet with 23 year old Mexican sensation ‘Canelo’ barely heading into being a mainstream player in the game and does not bear a ranking on the mythical top ten ratings.
Mayweather stays on top with a W and obviously, there would be a seismic shift in things if Canelo were to have his name said by Michael Buffer in ‘and new…’ like fashion.
Let’s take a look at the scenarios of the possible outcomes come mid-September.
Many point to this as the most likely scenario. Boxing website Badlefthook reported shortly after the fight was announced that Mayweather opened at a -225 favorite with Canelo at a +175 underdog, and an ESPN SportsNation poll of over 150,000 chose a Mayweather win by decision at 52% and 21% chose a by KO outcome for a 73% win ratio.
A solid Mayweather win keeps him on the top of the boxing world and en route to his third match of a six fight deal he signed with Showtime in 2013 in what is reported as the most lucrative deal in sports history.
One would think that a tough out against Canelo that harkens back to anything similar to the Cotto showdown last year where the Puerto Rican was able to draw blood on the face of Mayweather would convince Team Mayweather to have an easy out the next go’ round in 2014 with a lower level opponent such as Amir Khan or Devon Alexander.
A low risk, high reward bout would likely be made for Cinco De Mayo 2014, a date Mayweather has likened to throughout his career.
Also, if the fight were taxing to the 36 year olds body resulting in a disputed victory if Canelo is effective on September 14 but Mayweather still ended up with his hand raised, it would be unlikely to see Mayweather opt for a return bout via his rematch with Jose Luis Castillo in 2002.
Even though most fans would clamor for a rematch if Mayweather’s win was shaky, Mayweather will likely put Canelo in the rear view mirror in 2014, with the options available of a Europe based showdown against Khan or an easier out against a less solid opponent.
This could be the one and only scenario in which Mayweather would have to consider scheduling another 36 minutes or less against the Guadalajara, Mexico import. Even a draw would unlikely result in a rematch, but a spilt decision, unanimous or knockout loss will dramatically alter the trajectory of Mayweather’s career at this point.
A rematch for redemption would likely be made, given the less than expected PPV buy results of Mayweather’s bout against Robert Guerrero in May in what most think resulted in pressure for Mayweather to sign for the best possible opponent for his September fight, that being Canelo.
On Jim Lampley’s latest ‘The Fight Game’ HBO series, guest Chris Mannix believed that interest in a Mayweather fight would drop significantly if he were to record his first loss in his 45th career fight.
If the Guerrero bout buys were as disappointing as public perception dubbed them to be, despite Showtime’s claim of over one million, the buys would really drop if the public were unaccepting of a lesser opponent in the event of a Canelo win.
If Mayweather loses on September 14th, it’ll mean Mayweather vs. Canelo II.
The boxing world would be turned upside down in the event that the No. 1 fighter in the world records a loss, no matter how you shake it, dubious decision or not. Just like when Manny Pacquiao lost to Timothy Bradley via heavily disputed decision in June of last year, Pacquiao’s No. 2 ranking in the world was reconsidered, thus beginning the Pac Man’s fall from a top seated position.
Even an unwarranted decision in Kid Cinnamon’s favor would upset the normal course of things in the boxing landscape and Mayweather would be pressured to redeem himself against the young star in a return fight.
In the event of a conclusive victory by Canelo, well folks, there would be a new King in town with the young fighter sitting atop a mountain of glory as the first ever to beat Mayweather and take away that all precious 0.
A tidal wave of popularity would be thrown Canelo’s way and he would once again prove himself tough at the negotiating table like he did earlier this year in refusing to be on another Mayweather undercard.
For a rematch, Canelo could hard press Mayweather in the negotiations and get his way with the particulars of the match.
Perhaps instead of Mayweather/Canelo, the rematch billing would read Canelo/Mayweather II?
This is the most common expected result of a Mayweather opponent for years, and as Mayweather himself likes to remind everyone so they don’t forget, 44 have tried and 44 have failed.
If Canelo is the no. 45 come September, then Canelo’s upswing over the past few years, culminating with a solid W over Austin Trout that essentially garnered him the rights to challenge Mayweather, suddenly turns into a downswing with all the air out of ‘Canelo Mania’ being sucked out.
There isn’t much of an upside to losing to Mayweather, either, as told in a 3MR piece a few weeks ago: https://3morerounds.com/columns/the-aftermath-of-floyd-mayweather-jr-s-last-six-opponents/.
Perhaps the only advantage that Canelo has over Mayweather’s previous opponents is his age. Even if Kid Cinnamon didn’t glove up again for two years after September, he would still be a ripe 25 years old. A ring absence that long is unlikely but Canelo, right now at least, is beating the only true undefeated presence in boxing; the clock.
That wont change after September, so Canelo has a bit of an advantage heading into 2013 and beyond, win, loss or draw. The 147/154 scene is still piping hot, especially in the GBP stable, so Canelo will not be looking long for an opponent in 2014.
In the best of all scenario’s, both fighters bring their absolute best in the ring, the judge is rendered useless by mutual breaking of clinches, Canelo will be able to slip some solid shots through the patented Mayweather defense, Mayweather will dig his feet in and seek to push Canelo back with some offense, perhaps a knockdown or two will be scored by one or both fighters and an exciting finish will leave us clamoring for more and demanding Mayweather/Canelo II for Cinco De Mayo 2014.
Hey, we can all wish for the best, right?